Connecticut’s Future
There is no other US state that endures a greater disconnect than Connecticut between how much it should be appreciated and how much it is appreciated. At least for now, Connecticut leads the country in some of the most desirable attributes in the 21st century, including having a highly-skilled workforce, achieving a high level of educational attainment, and offering phenomenal access to healthcare and public services. Connecticut furthermore benefits from proximity to the NYC and Boston metro areas while offering considerably greater affordability and quality of life compared to these neighboring regions.
But for all these benefits, Connecticut is challenged to be fully valued for what it offers, and faces a challenging future as a result. According to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, by 2050, Connecticut is projected to be among the four slowest-growing US states by population – after West Virginia, Mississippi, and Illinois – losing more than 6% of our population vs. 2020. In fact, by 2050, two-thirds of Connecticut’s towns are expected to have smaller populations than they had in 2020, with some towns experiencing draw-downs of 20%-30% or more compared to 2020, decreases that are without precedent in these towns’ histories. These draw-downs are principally caused by Connecticut having a hard time retaining our young people, both those who grow up in Connecticut, and those who come to Connecticut for school. At the same time older residents age on, younger residents are increasingly pulled to opportunities elsewhere (often to the nearby NYC and Boston metros), leaving a state on course to have one of the largest population reductions of any US state.
A town-by-town map showing expected percent changes to populations in each Connecticut city and town when comparing 2040 to 2020. Click here for an interactive version of this map. Source: Connecticut Town Population Projections, Connecticut State Data Center.
Despite the current tightness in the Connecticut housing market, such vast population draw-downs are likely to create an excess of housing relative to the number of people who will need housing. Rather than building new housing, this is the time to make our state’s preexisting housing stock affordable and relevant anew for a new generation of Connecticut residents. We strive to do this at Clipper Ship Lane. We encourage others to follow us in doing the same.
An Affordable Connecticut is Just the Start
Efforts to achieve affordability are only one step in a wider solve for Connecticut. At Clipper Ship Lane, we find that what seems like an affordability problem for our state is, in fact, an opportunity problem. There are corners of the US with costs-of-living far higher than those in Connecticut, yet residents in these other places worry about affordability far less than people in our state do. This is because affordability is always relative to opportunity and income. With costs in Connecticut having risen faster than personal income for the past 10-15 years, our state has started to seem unaffordable, even though cost-of-living in the nearby NYC and Boston metro areas is dramatically higher than it is in almost all of Connecticut.
Reversing this trend means adding the next wave of opportunity to our state! It means informing major employers about the terrific talent pool raised in or educated in Connecticut, and the terrific opportunity to add to or expand companies’ in-state presences. It means encouraging foundership in Connecticut rather than in our nearest major metros. It means retaining our young people in Connecticut, and helping them have great lives here. We believe this is all possible if we commit ourselves to solve this.
Find Out More
Want to find out how you can be part of the solution for Connecticut’s future? Click here to contact us and let us know your interest to help!
A chart from the Town of Essex Affordable Housing Plan (2022) showing a steep and unprecedented drawdown in the population of Essex over the next 20+ years. Such projections are now commonplace — if under-recognized — across most of Connecticut’s municipalities. The time to try to prevent this projection from becoming reality is now. The way to prevent it is to address Connecticut’s opportunity alongside our affordability.
